1/10/2022 Horse racing tips and best bets – Flemington, Turnbull Stakes day

The 9th race program has been set for Flemington on Turnbull Stakes Day on Saturday. The weather is nice, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out nine meters for the whole circuit.

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Race 1. (12.40pm) Maribyrnong Trial Stks 1000m

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Back me

4 Mount Olympus (Bet now: $8.00 BEST RATE) looks like a colt with good talent. Most of them jumped here last week down the straight and this guy impressed me. The time was not fast compared to the morning, but I liked that when asked, he responded and created a good speed of change. The market is a guide, but I think it’s going pretty well.

Danger

2 Beluga Express (Bet now: BEST RATE $5.50) is a Hayes-trained stallion making his debut here after a trial run last Thursday. He slowed down before Nolen offered him some clean air, and he went through the gears nicely on light driving and seemed to move pretty well to me. The stallion suits its young, so it commands respect.

Long shot

10 Magic Stone (Bet now: BEST ODDS $3.70) is in the mix. The Price/Kent trained daughter of I Am Invincible ran here in the straight over a jump and seemed to move quite well to my eye when second. Jamie Kah booked a ride and pulled out, I think she’ll have clean air and she’s dangerous.

Race 2. (13:15) Paris Lane Stakes 1400m

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Interest 2 Character (Bet now: BEST RATE $7.50). He has a good third and has quality when right. He looked around for Cameron’s winner at Newcastle last time but couldn’t quite finish when surprise winner Wild Chap was third but was out on a day with the inside red hot. He’s tough now, maps ideally and a solid deck should see him hard to beat.

Danger

7 Visinari (Bet now: $2.15 BEST RATE) is fresh for rock and roll here, I’d suggest. He is a good horse for the Price/Kent camp going forward. He has not raced here since June 18 when he was a close second to Tuvalu, who ran so well in the Sir Rupert Clarke, so the form was ticked off, his jump work was strong and he gave them a fresh spanking in the last preparation.

Long shot

5 Poland (Bet now: $21.00 BEST COURSES) is able with all his might. He continued down the straight at Bobbie Lewis three weeks ago and was never a factor given where he was at the back, so be lenient with the effort behind Baller. The 1400m climb looks ideal and his best performance is clearly good enough to handle it.

Race 3. (13:50) Edward Manifold Stakes 1600m

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Back me

4 Moko (Bet now: BEST RATE $12.00) is one of a couple I was looking for early on for the Oaks. She went on to Synthetic where I thought she was a good thing on paper but Thornton rode her like a trial ride, dropped out the back and took too long to get going and rode late to finish second. He will run a mile and has quality from his two-year-old season, plus he will receive a jockey upgrade with the handling of Jamie Kah. Leading bidder.

Danger

1 She is Licketysplit (Bet now: BEST ODDS $3.00) is a class runner and this class will take her far. She continued in the Guineas Prelude where she worked on the speed and although Boogie Dancer kept her safe late, I really liked the way she held on to finish third. A fitter, by a mile, hard to beat.

Long shot

2 Sumatra (Bet now: $5.00 BEST RATE) is a mare with good talent for James Cummings. He ran in the Thousand Guineas overture at Caulfield two weeks ago and was never a factor to overtake Boogie Dancer but was very good of late when second behind this mare. He should eat that mile and I think the penny has dropped.

Race 4. (14:25) Rose Of Kingston Stakes 1400m

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Back me

8 Excelida (Bet now: $11.00 BEST COURSES) in my opinion is worth the ticket for each journey. She continued How Now at Caulfield two weeks ago and ran as well as she could be first IMO on the testing ground behind Zapate. Better and up to 1400 ma on a stronger deck, more track, I think it will run beautifully.

Danger

1 Desire (Bet now: BEST ODDS $4.60) is hard to beat. The Hawkes team trained mare continued in the Let’s Elope over this course/distance three weeks ago and was well off the pace when closing third to Kissonallforcheeks. This form of race held up in the Stocks last Friday night and in fitter condition it will be hard to last.

Long shot

5 Argentina (Bet now: BEST RATE $5.50) will need luck from the gate, but has the properties to be dangerous. She continues as she didn’t race from Sangster when she came back and made some room without threatening behind Snapdancer. She liked the way she went in the recent jump-off at Flemington and hopefully she can settle closer in the run rather than just fall off the back.

Race 5. (15:05) Danehill Stakes 1100m

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Back me

3 Giga Kick (Bet now: $2.00) really well done by Clayton Douglas. They could easily have gone the Caulfield Guineas route, but left it on hold and concentrated on Coolmore, with that as their starting point. He was great at winning Vain, wearing down Alpha One. Jumpout was a good piece of work and proved itself on the straight. Hard to beat.

Danger

Back on a firmer deck, I want to give 8 Doll (Bet now: $7.50) another chance. He came back on the straight three weeks ago and on par he was quite calm but he was close to the speed which wasn’t where there was a strong headwind and the track was quite wet. Back on earth, J Kah on, he can run a much better race.

Long shot

5 Buenos Noches (Bet now: $3.80) has a few loose screws on top, but obviously has a good engine. I won on protest three weeks ago when Spacewalk caused a hit and took control of Buenos Noches, with Froggy winning in the stewards room. A proven straight-up master, he sits back and fires late.

Race 6. (15:45) The Bart Cummings 2510m

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Back me

8 Lunar Flare (Bet now: $10.00) eats up 2500m. She ran in the Naturalism at Caulfield where Dee rode her as if it were a hurdle test. He sat down, no initiative and I just left the run too late. A proven performer on the trip and with a more positive mindset I think she’s good enough to pull it off.

Danger

2 Promise and declaration (Bet now: $9.50) looked totally cast as a horse, but I think he’s flying for Danny O’Brien. He caught the eye at Caulfield behind Jimmy The Bear before retiring here three weeks ago and was very good from behind when third in the High Emocean. When I got to peak condition and up to 2500m, I think he commands respect.

Long shot

11 Francesco Guardi (Bet now: $16.00) is tricky flying for Chris Waller. On paper it was just a run at Kingston Town, but the shape of the race and split times suggest the run had plenty of merit. He had a break between runs and was picking up the revs nicely, but couldn’t quite hold on. Better for running, he is dangerous.

Race 7. (16:25) Turnbull Stakes 2000m

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Back me

I’ve been saying this for weeks 2 Duais (Bet now: $4.80) is a moral for Turnbull. It’s here and I’m not leaving. She was very good fresh off the Memsie before going on the George Main where she never played a role given the shape of the race but still found the line behind Anamoe. A proven track/distance great and this race was all set up.

Danger

i love 16 Surefire (Bet now: $14.00) as a horse and I am very curious to see him go to the hard deck for the first time since arriving in Australia. Ride upside down in Kingston Town so I forgive this effort. Previous runs have been very good, so on dry deck, down in weight… he’s going to beat it.

Long shot

3 Numerian (Bet now: $17.00) looks to be well on his way to the Caulfield Cup. Resumed at Chelmsford and yes fit the pattern but first over a mile the run was very good when second to Knights Order. The Caulfield Cup is his target and apart from this return he is on the right track and commanding respect here.

Race 8. (17:05) Gilgai Stakes 1200m

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Back me

2 Ballers (Bet now: $8.50) can win again. Coming back to Bobbie Lewis he got behind them before coming back in and showing an electric change of speed to win and win well. He is a fresh horse like a bomb, but he is just as capable as the second and last start showed that the flat track is no problem at all.

Danger

3 Astrologer (Bet now: $10.00) is a straight lane specialist who can rebound. I believe they rode him to touch fresh in Bobbie Lewis and he just couldn’t finish behind Baller. He has a great track/distance record and has class so I wouldn’t rule him out just yet.

Long shot

7 Tycoonist (Bet now: $31.00) can run an improved race. He went on to Theo Marks and was one of many who were unlucky at a vital stage and walked around as if it was a barrier court. That was the story of his life really with his pattern, but if he manages to get the green light, he will start late.

Race 9. (17:40) Super Impose Stks 1800m

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Back me

11 Cadazio (Bet now: $8.50) should be given another chance. He ran here at Exford three weeks ago and was too bad to be true. He was back and wide all the way but didn’t finish the way I thought he would. I think you’ll see a fitter, firmer leg and up to 1800m a much better horse and a serious Derby contender.

Danger

4 Artzina (Bet now: $4.80) is a nice horse for the Price/Kent camp. Maiden’s win at Sandown was strong last midweek, he sat back before growing and I liked him very strong on and through the line, which is to be expected given he is by Tarzin. It goes up to 1800m and a big runway. Hard to beat.

Long shot

10 She met (Bet now: $71.00) looks suitable up to 1800m for the Busuttin/Young campsite. He ran over 1400m on Trial Day when he returned to the running and never really mattered but was fine late in the stretch behind a promising animal at Elkington Road. He enjoys the trip and has been raised to appreciate it.

BEST BET: Race 3 Number 4 Moko

NEXT BEST: Race two number 2 character

LONG SHOT: Race nine number 11 Cadazio

Tips for ATVs (races six to nine):

First leg: 2, 4, 8, 10, 11

Second part: 2, 16

Third section: 2, 3, 7, 12

Fourth part: 2, 4, 10, 11

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