10/07/2022 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Cranbourne Pinker Pinker Plate Night

Cranbourne’s night racing season kicks off this Friday with Pinker Pinker Night. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in true position for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (17:40) Afc-Peter & Lavella Darose Mdn 1300m

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Back me

11 Veloce Carro (Bet now: $2.35) looks like the one to beat. I thought he was very good fresh off Ballarat on Synthetic. Wide no cover for the trip back but closed well enough when second behind Redzoust who has since won again. Hopefully they roll forward from a wide gate and will be hard to beat.

Danger

Elevation to 1300m should be fine 9 Sutadamu (Bet now: $3.10). When he went on to bet on Pakenham Synthetic, he was pretty safe with his bet. To the eye he seemed to have every chance, but he looked like a horse that wanted more ground. He gets it here and finds a very winning virgin.

Long shot

5 Sudden (Bet now: $00 SP.00) is an interesting runner. He is rebuilding as the Corstens gelding after making his Group III debut at the Adelaide Autumn Carnival where he finished last. He got a decent break, coughed up and his jump work was encouraging so keep an eye on the market.

Race 2. (18:15) Btm Electrical Mdn Plate 2025m

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Back me

I think 8 Flame of Venice (Bet now: $2.10) should be a clear favorite and is one of the best bets on the card. She continued over a mile at Moe and on paper it was just a breakaway, but she was wide on the track and the fence was red hot early in the meeting, so she actually did a good job to get as close as she did. . Gate one, she can settle close to the speed and with the climb to 2000m I think she is clearly the one to beat.

Danger

11 Burning Burj (Bet now: $2.10) is the main threat. He made his debut in the 1700m at Geelong where he came back decently in the run, but he liked how he ended his race late in second. He gets a significant jockey upgrade, increased distance, and has more perks than most.

Long shot

1 Aviation and cosmonautics (Bet now: $8.50) returns to 2000m and I think he is an improver. Last time he went over 2400m at Bendigo on a bottomless deck and that wet track, positive ride, I just think it was set up wrong. Back to 2000ms patient driving can run a much better race.

Race 3. (18:45) Frankston Sand Soil & Mini Mix 1200m

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Back me

6 Grande Marengo (Bet now: $4.80) at the top, but not a race I want to enter. He continues for Luke Oliver, who has not raced since April 29, when he was third in a similar race to this over a mile behind Peppin. 1200m is on the short side for him, but he has a quality factor that is hard to beat.

Danger

2 Ellan’s (Bet now: $3.70) is one of the best picnic gallopers in the world and a short course specialist, with all six of his career wins coming in sprints. She’s not a known fresh horse and the preparation is improving, but fresh in a race like this you’d think she’d be ready to go.

Long shot

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 7 Fleet Dreams (Bet now: $18.00). At Casterton over a month ago, he went on to run over 1,000m in preparation and was actually not too bad when he beat Magna Carta. A tricky draw to overcome, but his best is good enough to be dangerous.

Race 4. (19:15) Bj Electrics Mdn Plate 1000m

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Back me

12 Tropicconi (Bet now: $1.65) is the only threat I found. Matt Laurie trained the filly on her debut and her work on trials and jumps was impressive, enough to say she would likely win her debut. The problem is that they run into Stakes-class horses. But with the map in the corner, it can be somewhat threatening.

Danger

14 Big frosts (Bet now: $3.60) is a Pride Of Dubai gelding trained by Peter Moody who is regaining and commanding a certain level of respect. He had two races at Pakenham to start his early winter career, debuting on turf and then synthetic. Spelled, he jumped well, the threat is certain.

Long shot

11 Shrimp (Bet now: $00 SP.00) is, I think, one for wider multiples. A Godolphin filly who was spotted on her debut at Echuca in April and didn’t really fire when on the track behind No Lockdown. She jumped well enough to the front and is a big price for a Godolphin in a girl.

Race 5. (19:45) Procon Developments Mdn Plate 1600m

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Back me

5 Sociabeel (Bet now: $1.25) is at the top. Busuttin/A young filly who has been solid this prep but still finds one or two betters last run at Geelong when third to Mornington Mask. I’m counting on the hare to chase, a much better race can be run on a firmer deck.

Danger

10 is sweet (Bet now: $00 SP.00) is for wider exotics. She has two career starts, finishing the track on debut at Geelong before going to Coleraine where she ran a much better race when fourth. I doubt he will win, but he is an improver and can make the top four.

Long shot

1 Di Di Mau (Bet now: $7.00) is the third choice in the race for me, but quite far from the top two. He continued over 1100m at Pakenham Synthetic and wasn’t too bad from a slow pace, beaten around 3.5L. He steps up to a mile like this and can fill the top four in a relatively thin race.

Race 6. (20:15) Stables Plus (Bm70) 1600m

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Back me

I think 1 Agnelli (Bet now: $6.50) is worth a one-way ticket. The Chris Waller trained gelding continued over 1400m at Flemington on a bottomless deck and he just looked like he needed a run behind Cardinal Gem and lost two plates in the run so the excuses were clear. It’s a much better set up this time and while he might want another run, he has runs on the board that are hard to beat.

Danger

6 Thought provoking (Bet now: $3.40) is a key threat. She continued in the aforementioned Cardinal Gem race where she was on the speed throughout and put in a solid kick but felt it was too late to finish fourth. She will get a good boost from it and Jordan Childs gets on really well with her.

Long shot

7 Jenkins (Bet now: $00 SP.00) is hard to catch, but once it finds a winning form, it usually sticks. He won on Synthetic at Pakenham last start and was impressive for long under pressure to fend them off. It’s harder here, but it commands respect.

Race 7. (20:45) Pinker Pinker Plate 2025m

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Back me

1 Nerves Not Verve (Bet now: $2.20) looks like the one to beat. She ran in the JRA Cup at The Valley last time and yes she had a pattern in her turn but still ran a very creditable runner up race when second to Desert Icon. Back to the Mares class, Jamie Kah holds his own, I think he has the class factor to win.

Danger

5 A unique artist (Bet now: $3.60) flies for Phillip Stokes and the key was to get to 2000m+. A strong winner at 2200m two back on Synthetic at Pakenham before proving it was no fluke when winning in testing conditions at 2000m at Caulfield. He must be respected despite the increase in class/depth.

Long shot

6 Miss Gobcain (Bet now: $6.50) could have run well in those 2500m SA races, but I like that the stable kept her on ice to save her for this race on her home deck. I reckon 2400m+ sees her straight out and she’s much better suited to 2000m. I doubt she’ll win but she’s a must for multiples.

Race 8. (21:15) Melbourne Cup Carnival (Bm64) 1400m

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Back me

I think you have to take a risk with it 6 Vegas Knight (Bet now: $6.00). He rides for Nick Ryan for the first time and we know this stable is fast becoming one of the best in improving a proven horse. His form has improved rapidly in recent work but he is a Saturday class horse at best and his jump work suggests he is ready to go. If he’s right and he’s fit, I think he’s the one to beat.

Danger

10 Toregene (Bet now: $3.30) is a promising beast that continues for Matty Williams. He went 2/3 on his start, winning both the Warrnambool and Swan Hill Carnivals with Flemington running in between. His jump work suggests he is ready to go for that first assignment and he needs to respect the stable when they are on the road away from home.

Long shot

5 No surrender (Bet now: $7.50) is seven days in reserve for Jack Laing after racing at The Valley last Friday night. He was close to the pace all the way out of Outback Action and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish when fourth behind the promising horse. Like him on the trip, he will land at the front and run well.

Race 9. (21:45) Ladbrokes (Bm64) 1000m

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Back me

Perverts are over 9 Mir (Bet now: $2.15). Rightfully so, as the former Hong Kong galloper jetted off within a few jumps to prepare for his first ride for Nick Ryan. Note that the sole owner is Clint Hutchinson and he has had good success with these ex-Hong Kong gallopers, especially Nick Ryan. Money talks and they suggest that this horse is here to rock and roll.

Danger

10 Lempicka (Bet now: $4.40) has the home track advantage and has solid form around him that commands respect. She continues after not having raced since June 25 at Caulfield, when round as a hurdle trial, she held on poorly in the straight as she came down the track behind Inundation. He looked sharp in a recent jump win and should get a sweet trip from the gate. Leading odds.

Long shot

4 Kalashani Lad (Bet now: $26.00) is a track winner and would love some form of cushion in it. He has not raced for several weeks since a track trial at Sandown for the All England on firm ground, something he has hated in recent years. If he should get some giving on the ground and in big odds, he can be included in the wider multiples.

BEST BET: Race Two number 8 Flame of Venice

NEXT BEST: Race four number 12 Tropicconi

LONG SHOT: Race six number 1 Agnelli

Tips for ATVs (races six to nine):

First leg: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7

Second part: 1, 4, 5, 6

Third section: 5, 6, 9, 10

Fourth part: 9, 10

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