12/03/2022 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Pakenham Pakenham Cup Day

Pakenham will host its biggest day of racing on Saturday as part of Pakenham Cup Day. The weather is nice, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the right position for the whole circuit.

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Race 1 (12:35) John Duff & Co (Bm78) 2000m

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Back me

12 Matron Bullwinkel (Bet now: $4.20) is a promising mare for the Maher/Eustace camp who commands respect. Good late fresh on Geelong Cup Day before going to Flemington on Oaks Day when he got a peach from J Mac and she improved as the race went on to win. That was 1700m and she races as the next will suit, which is what she gets here. Hard to beat.

Danger

7 Brayden’s Star (Bet now: $1.95) is an import with good promise for the Busuttin/Young stable. Australian debut came on Cranbourne Cup day where he found quite a weak race and wasn’t quite sure he could handle the course but he had plenty of them and was too good. The bigger track, 2000m, will get a much better setup.

Long shot

11 Za’Ex (Bet now: $31.00) is among the first four applicants. This trip ran under the lights at The Valley last time and although he was never a threat to Zoumon, I thought he stuck to the task quite well when he beat and ran third. I reckon Friday nights are his pick and this is a bit too strong, but he can run the top four.

Race 2. (13:10) Unified Services (Bm78) 1200m

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Back me

Landed with 3 Adele Amour (Bet now: $5.50) for John Sadler who will no doubt have this mare ready for the home deck and the big race day. He rode in the trailer at Cranbourne last time and had no luck at all on the straight when he had something to offer and should have fought his way to the finish. He will get a big jockey upgrade and fancy his chances on a bigger track.

Danger

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 7 Throntars (Bet now: $5.50). She continued in the Magic Millions 3&4YO Classic a fortnight back and was very good from last on the turn when Direct was beaten just a little longer to finish fourth. If he can settle closer in the run and be within striking distance, he must win the final.

Long shot

2 Lady Dunmore (Bet now: $17.00) jumps on a bunny and runs a daring race. Last time at the test track in Bendigo, she was up against two rivals and just handled the track the best to win. The two runners ran well enough at Cranbourne last Friday night and she has the home track advantage. Knockout hope.

Race 3. (13:45) Furphy Refreshing Ale (Bm70) 1200m

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Back me

I’m on the side 13 Only John (Bet now: $11.00), which continues for Lindsey Smith. He had not raced since July 18 on home turf at Warrnambool when he was back in the running but ran steadily to get into the race but a steady run only told late when third. His recent work over the jump has been sharp and I think this race is a little weaker.

Danger

2 La Caresse (Bet now: $15.00) races really well for Matt Laurie and commands respect here. Race in defeat two back on Moe Cup Day before being freshened up and raced at Ballarat where he drew gate one and that sealed his fate as it was quicksand but he did a good job in defeat to finish fourth. The fitter, on the way, appeals.

Long shot

11 Blue (Bet now: $31.00) is one for multiples. He ran this route last time out at The Valley where he got quite out of his ground and was never a real threat but liked the way he finished his race behind Redzoust. He gets pretty good after a claim and a knockout chance if the inside gate is used to advantage.

Race 4. (14:20) Rj Sanderson & Associates-Bm78 1000m

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Back me

4 Rent Suhail (Bet now: $3.80) will need some luck from a tricky gate but I think 1000m is perfect for him. He had not raced down the straight since Masters Day at Flemington where he tried his guts but couldn’t get there when second to the well-tried Snapper. He likes it back to 1000 and makes B Shinn drive. Hard to beat.

Danger

9 Dance to Dubai (Bet now: $8.00) has home track advantage, so you’d think he’d be the first around the re fitness mark on Cup Day. She follows on from a fairly solid winter preparation where she won first at 1100m before being far from embarrassed in the next few races. Dynamite is a fresh horse and her recent jump win here was sharp.

Long shot

A firmer foot can see 2 Sam’s picture (Bet now: $41.00) run a much better race, especially on home turf. He ran two weeks back at Ballarat where he looked to be on the pace, but when asked for a big effort the wheels spun and he couldn’t finish the race behind Mnementh. Back on the ground, he can launch a ripper.

Race 5. (15:00) Fulmen park (70 Bm) 1000 m

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Back me

9 River Ribble (Bet now: $9.50) is a talented three-year-old for Freedman who continues and I think can continue as a winner. He had a three-round winter build-up, highlighted by a first fresh win at Cranbourne, making an absolute mess of them in an impressive performance. A few jumps to prepare and I think he might be better suited at 1000m than 1200m.

Danger

2 Dusse (Bet now: $3.60) is a filly I have plenty of time for and no shock that didn’t improve from Lloyd Kennewell to Maher/Eustace. 2/2 for new stable, won fresh at Sale before going to The Valley when wide without cover for the trip but had panels on them and was just too good. Her life is short so she looks good again.

Long shot

4 Fission (Bet now: $17.00) didn’t make too many mistakes this time. He followed up with a strong win at The Valley and placed there last time out, including at Flemington on Cup Day. He seems best suited to the short track and for me he is a dry horse so he has suitable conditions.

Race 6. (15:40) David Bourke Memorial Hcp 1200m

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Back me

10 Curran (Bet now: $6.50) doesn’t have the best racing designs, but has the engine under the hood to make up for it. A few weeks between races after he raced down the straight at Flemington where he bounced back to a solid lead without threatening behind Argentia. He is close to winning if he is within 400 meters.

Danger

3 Felicia (Bet now: $5.50) is a horse I am very interested in. She’s had her first run for Team Snowden and I think she’s ready to go. The jump-off win at Flemington was quite sharp, leading throughout and responding nicely when called upon to try. Shinn rode in the jump and is holding on here, which I think is a good lead.

Long shot

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 14 William Thomas (Bet now: $31.00). He went on to Apache Cat and the way the race went he had no hope and ran accordingly, finishing last behind Jigsaw who confirmed his form at Doveton last Saturday. He’s capable of everything and has a good second place.

Race 7. (16:20) Pakenham Cup 2500m

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Back me

7 Wyclif (Bet now: $5.50) is the key chance to win. Danny O’Brien trained the gelding who ran over 2000m at Flemington a few weeks ago and charged strongly from a slow pace but couldn’t get there when second to the well-trialled Flash Feeling. It was his first run in a few weeks, so you’d like to think there’s room for improvement.

Danger

6 Kissinger (Bet now: $4.50) was up for a while, but he’s keeping his form great. Second race on Thousand Guineas Day at Caulfield before leaving for this outing in the Cranbourne Cup Day when Olly got a sweet ride and was able to finish best in the ride as he was strong on the front. It’s harder here, but it deserves a crack.

Long shot

8 Nobel heights (Bet now: $9.00) is supposed to wake up and sit down, it can threaten. They drove forward with him three weeks back at Cranbourne and tried his guts, but couldn’t get there when a tough Kissinger caught them late. He’s a talented horse when it’s right and I think he’ll get the conditions to suit him here.

Race 8. (17:00) Vobis Gold Bullion 1400m

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Back me

Quite happy here 5 Jimmy Bear (Bet now: $3.70). The Patrick Payne-trained four-year-old continued in the Golden Eagle, where he got back almost last from a wide gate but loved the way he found the line without threatening behind I Wish I Win. Much better placed here and very authentic. Ardent.

Danger

2 He looks like Elvis (Bet now: $3.30) won this race last year and looks set to do so. It continues for Jarrod Austin, who has not raced since July 30 when he finished narrowly behind the handy horse Love Tap at Eagle Farm. The form around him reads well for a race like this and his two attempts in Sydney were sharp.

Long shot

4 Wicklow Town (Bet now: $23.00) is hard to beat with your absolute best. Throw in the deep end and start your preparation with some Stakes races. He then went to the China Bowl at Ararat, back at 1200m and was fair in defeat behind the good horse Do Ya Punk. Like him back to 1400m and racing these VOBIS races. If he can find anywhere near his best, he can win for sure.

Race 9. (17:40) S’bet Future Stars 12/1 (Bm78) 1600m

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Back me

I’m not sure it will reach the heights of stablemate Lighthouse, but I think so 2 Ivy Leagues (Bet now: $11.00) can make a winning Australian debut. Foremr American mare that brings stronger shape lines than Lighthouse and we know what she has done in Australia. Jumped at Ararat in early November and moved well in the straight when asked. Market will be fascinating, but she could easily be too good for the lot.

Danger

5 Chicago Bear (Bet now: $3.80) looks like a promising import for the Busuttin/Young camp and I think having a run under his belt is a big tick for him. Australian debut came over a mile at Flemington a few weeks ago and I think with a half decent ride and clean air he will win the race instead of fourth to French Emperor. Solid overseas form and has a huge advantage compared to most.

Long shot

4 Beltoro (Bet now: $8.00) cracks to win the race and I think he commands respect here. The former caught the eye late on Geelong Cup Day behind Maximus Prime before going to Flemington where he worked the front strongly late on when second behind the very well-formed French Emperor. Third now so should be solid and will be strong late.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 5 Jimmy the Bear

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 4 Najem Suhail

LONG SHOT: Race nine number 2 Ivy League

Tips for ATVs (races six to nine):

First leg: 1, 3, 10, 14

Second part: 3, 6, 7, 8

Third section: 5

Fourth part: 2, 4, 5, 8, 15

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