13/8/2022 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Caulfield, PB Lawrence Stakes day

Spring is in the air at Caulfield this Saturday for PB Lawrence Stakes Day, with the 1400m leading up to the Memsie Stakes in two weeks’ time. The weather is nice, the track is good (4) and the rail is outside nine meters on the whole circuit.

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Race 1. (12:10) Mrc 1st Renewal M Grumley Hcp 1600m

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Back me

3 Midnight Blue (Bet now: BEST RATE $9.50) is a fascinating runner. Former WA galloper making his Victorian debut in Danny O’Brien’s camp. He has not raced since the New Year when he was a strong Perth Cup winner. I was surprised how well he got into the lead, the last one was a win at Werribee so watch the market.

Danger

6 Chief of Altona (Bet now: $2.40 BEST RATE) was up for a while, but he’s keeping his form really well. He ran for Lackeen a fortnight back in the Valley and was never a factor to beat the Godolphin horse as the gallop stole a march on the field, including Chief Altony. He likes Caulfield and hopefully he can settle in as a closer in the run.

Long shot

5 The thought of it (Bet now: BEST ODDS $4.80) is a watch for me. He’s talented when he’s right, but he can also be quite hit and miss. He hasn’t raced since the end of May when he was on the track for Mankayan but he has had jumps and hurdles in the break so whether that was to sharpen him up or they have their eyes on the maiden hurdle and this is a preparation to run I’m not sure. But he is capable of winning it.

Race 2. (12:45) Senet Gambling Expert-Bm78 1600 m

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Back me

11 Pitchanun (Bet now: $8.00 BEST RATE) knocks on the door to win. The track was too wet for her freshman at Sandown behind Cyclone Sally. Then she went to Flemington three weeks ago where she was unlucky not to win, held up at a vital stage before getting on track and riding late to just miss out. She’s tough now, hard to beat.

Danger

8 Unusual culture (Bet now: BEST RATE $7.50) is a talented mare I feel for the Maher/Eustace camp. I just wish they would get her to Flemington as she looks like a great belt horse. Both Australian rides came here and each time she rounded the corner she lost momentum and came into balance late. She can win, but backing her to do so is another matter.

Long shot

9 A free-flying star (Bet now: $21.00 BEST COURSES) was up for a while, but it’s holding its form quite nicely. Last few runs came at Sandown where she was pretty consistent and so every time, finishing third behind Free To Move last start. Harder here, but in form, harder fitness, commands respect.

Race 3. (13:20) Fierce Impact Breed Elite-Bm90 1100m

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Back me

4 She is the whole class (Bet now: BEST ODDS $2.80) should get spanked for the Maher/Eustace camp. The first ride for the stable came at Caulfield a few weeks ago when he sat off the pace before being presented wider and finished strongly when second to Chain Of Lightning with a good effort and a strong return. Overalls, with class on her side, will take a beating against this one.

Danger

7 Throntars (Bet now: $6.00 BEST RATE) has found winning form… can she keep it? He freshened up from 1400m to 1200m a few weeks ago at Caulfield and the final result was a dominant win in testing conditions, aided by an absolute peach from Craig Williams, who is Victoria’s best rider at the moment. Back in winning form commands respect.

Long shot

5 Little Stevie (Bet now: $18.00 BEST COURSES) has been a breakout mare throughout her career, but this time she made her mark as a Saturday class horse. She was given a peach by Cartwright to win at Caulfield a few weeks ago when she sat off the pace before getting clear air and went away for a strong performance. Hard to say how genuine she is.

Race 4. (13:55) Ive > (Bm78) 1200m

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Back me

I think 5 I’m Ben (Bet now: BEST ODDS $3.80) is the best on the card. The Andrew Clarken trained SA mare who I believe is using this run as a tune-up and look at Caulfield in preparation for the Cockram. She continued in Lightning at Morphettville and was very good in the worst ground behind the star in Extremely Lucky. The form is A1 for this and fit, up to 1200m, I feel like it.

Danger

1 Home Rule (Bet now: $5.00 BEST RATE) can be hit and miss, but when he’s on the course he walks on Saturday, as was evident when he won impressively at The Valley two weeks ago. He had a nice ride out of the Lane, sitting close to the speed before he snapped in the corner and went away, safely keeping his margin. Levels up to 78, but he’s likable again.

Long shot

Staying at 1200m is a knock 3 Attractive (Bet now: $11.00 BEST COURSES), but he is four years old and has talent. He continued at this track/distance three weeks back where he returned to the running and was never a factor but liked the way he finished the race behind the Big Apple. J Kah he is a big tick and his best is good enough.

Race 5. (14:35) Vain Bets 1100m

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Back me

If 5 Alpha One (Bet now: $3.60) can stretch its shine to 1100m, cooks on gas. Arrogant won twice back at 1000m at the Hawkesbury before returning to the 955m at The Valley two weeks ago, where he produced sustainable speed from the front and gave nothing else a look. He is fit, in shape and with his racing style, he will hit.

Danger

I say 3 Millan (Bet now: $6.00) is here to rock and roll first. Peter Moody trained the colt, who continues as he has not raced since a strong debut win at Flemington in March and was offered as a Slipper horse after that win. It was spelled instead. He’s back and with three jumps under his belt, he’s ready to go IMO and the stable recently flew low with their first horses.

Long shot

6 Giga Kick (Bet now: $4.50) faces a good test here, but all you can do is win, and that’s what he’s done in two career outings. He continued four weeks back on the straight at Flemington where he was a notable drifter in the stakes but it didn’t matter, winning comfortably. He hasn’t beaten anything, but watch out for the undefeated horse.

Race 6. (15:15) Quezette Stakes 1100m

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Back me

8 Winnertakesitall (Bet now: $20.00) came back in really good shape. Team Snowden’s filly, who continued at 955 m The Valley, where she had the suction behind the speed before Dee matched her, and went best in the ride to win and win well. She has room for improvement and is hard to beat again at 1100m.

Danger

11 No Diggities (Bet now: $19.00) is the class in the field and is fine in my opinion. The Team Freedman trained filly continues as she has not raced since the Blue Diamond Prelude where she was 1200m back to 1100m, was late and never featured, limping after the race. Given a good break she has had a few jumps to prepare…I think she is ready to go. Hopefully the market will agree.

Long shot

5 Ojai (Bet now: $21.00) looks a short track, so a return to 1100m is something I like for this James Cummings mare. She had a busy fall carnival, competing in all the good races, and even if she didn’t make it, it was far from embarrassing. The two attempts leading up were solid and steady to target these lower level blacktype races with their second/third tier gallop.

Race 7. (15:55) Regal Roller Stakes 1200m

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Back me

6 Showmanship (Bet now: $5.50) is a high quality horse when right and despite the bigger fish to fry has the class/quality to round them out. He had one ride to the O’Brien camp in the autumn, which came at Wangoom in Warrnambool when he was a close third behind Frankie Pinot. There’s only one quiet jump leading into this run, but if he’s in range, he’s got a final to beat them.

Danger

This is a good test 11 Unusual James (Bet now: $2.70), but it looks pretty promising. At 2/2 this time, both starts and wins come in Queensland, fresh off a run at Eagle Farm before repeating the dose in style at Doomben. He’s probably the best of the O’Dea/Hoysted team that’s in Melbourne so would love to see him do well at this level.

Long shot

7 Felicia (Bet now: $19.00) seems to be getting back on track. It was a fairly simple return in the Monash for Mileva, but she returned to positive form with a fighting fourth in the Bletchingly behind King Of Sparta. Now third and tough, we know her best is clearly good enough to beat them.

Race 8. (16:35) PB Lawrence Stakes 1400m

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Back me

5 Buffalo River (Bet now: $10.00) tends to race well on the fresh side and with a slight edge potentially on the cards I think it’s worth the gamble. He has had a frustrating autumn/winter preparation, plagued by wide gates, ordinary rides etc. The Caulfield 1400m suits his racing style, he will roll forward and with some juice in the track he will take a beating.

Danger

The class will carry 2 Mr. Brightside (Bet now: $3.40) long way. The Hayes team have trained the gelding to go on with an eye on the Cox Plate so not sure how stretched he is but he is a class runner who won the last run at Doncaster last prep following an excellent effort in the All Star Mile. It has to be respected.

Long shot

I think the weather conditions are decisive 3 Avalon Street (Bet now: $16.00). He’s a dead hitcher who went on to Bletchingly, trying to get his feet up on the changing track. Let’s hope he finds a stronger pack and we know his class is a multiple group l winner.

Race 9. (17:08) Millennium Services Group-Bm84 1400m

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Back me

4 Happy decision (Bet now: $7.50) is an enhancer. Peter Moody trained the gelding who went on behind Here To Shock a few weeks back at Caulfield and I thought he did a satisfactory job after doing a run job on a somewhat testing track. Fitter, a stronger deck (hopefully), is a key threat.

Danger

10 Sig Positano (Bet now: $12.00) is racing well, but it is quite difficult for him to win. He ran for Nero at Sandown in midweek when he seemed to have every chance from near the speed and fought well but was well held by Laming’s horse. Back on the track he loves, D-Day is sure to come.

Long shot

14 An incredible dream (Bet now: $16.00) deserves another chance. The Maher/Eustace trained mare returned to the Flemington straight a few weeks back down the straight where she was close to the pace throughout and tried hard but the fitness narrowly fell behind Nicolini Vito. Fitter, she can bounce back.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 5 I Am Bene

NEXT BEST: Race 3 Number 4 She is the whole class

LONG SHOT: Race number 3 midnight blue

Tips for ATVs (races six to nine):

First leg: 3, 5, 6, 8, 11

Second part: 1, 6, 7, 11

Third section: 2, 3, 4, 5

Fourth part: 4, 10, 11, 14, 16

$50 investment = 12.50% dividend if successful

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