23/9/2022 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Moir Stakes night

Moonee Valley’s 2022/23 night racing season kicks off this Friday evening with Moir Stakes Night. The weather is nice, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the right position for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (18:15) Aspect Kitchens Plate 1200m

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Back me

1 El Padrino (Bet now: $4.50) commands respect. The Maher/Eustace trained colt continued in the McKenzie a few weeks ago where he was close to the pace throughout and battled really well, finishing just behind stablemate Fast Witness in third. He has the run under his belt which should hold him in good stead.

Danger

2 Solomon (Bet now: $3.80) likes The Valley and should be up to speed. He was given a pattern in his corner on this track/dissent last time and duly saluted and led in a strong display. There is more depth here and the last bit will test but provide a great view.

Long shot

5 Sandpaper (Bet now: $13.00) is a son of Snitzel, who continues for James Cummings. He had a two-round winter preparation in Brisbane and followed up with a solid effort from behind for Swiss Exile in Champagne before going to Phoneix where he failed to fire behind Political Debate. The lead exams were good and J Mac on, he’s in the mix.

Race 2. (18:45) Scarborough Stks 1200m

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Back me

1 Ojai (Bet now: $8.50) is a bet for me. The James Cummings trained mare has two runs back from the spell. She followed up with a close second in the Quezette at Caulfield before going to Cap D’Antibes at Flemington where she was unlucky at a crucial stage in the layoff. Draws into the seat with good speed, can rebound.

Danger

7 The English Riviera (Bet now: $3.70) will approach speed and be difficult to launch. I have a fresh kill virgin on Synthetic in Ballarat. She then went to Cap D’Antibes. She was close to the pace and battled hard, only to come up late in a close fourth. If she manages to get ahead and gain some form of control, she gets spanked.

Long shot

9 Ghaanati (Bet now: $9.50) was hailed as the winner of the Thousand Guineas on her electric debut. She hasn’t continued it since, but I think she had some excuses. I just got lost in Caulfield and got shot down late. Cap D’Antibes, she was late at first and I think that put her off her game. He winks at himself and pulls her in so she doesn’t do any work, she can bounce back.

Race 3. (19:15) Msc Signs (Bm84) 1200m

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Back me

3 Clemenceau (Bet now: $2.30) gets another chance. I think Pike was beaten by Bowman when he went on at Rosehill two weeks ago. He just took a little too long to get into the clear, Bowman and Remarque went with the momentum and that was the difference between winning and losing IMO. He is a talented horse headed in the right direction and hard to beat.

Danger

8 Zethus (Bet now: $8.00) is a very interesting runner. He returns for James Cummings as a gelding after showing quite a bit of promise early in his career but not being able to put it all together. He has not raced in the Gold Coast Guineas since May, but his trial work has been strong and gate one, J Kah, is a definite threat.

Long shot

5 Pioneer River (Bet now: $8.00) will be close to speed and hit. He ran at Randwick a few weeks ago where he was ridden positively and put in a solid kick but couldn’t quite finish when second to Hell I Am. The form around it reads well and you only need to hold the form to make it around the mark.

Race 4. (19:45) Stutt Stakes 1600m

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Back me

4 Tijuana (Bet now: $2.60) looks most obvious. Team Hayes trained the colt, which was strong in two runs back from the spell, placing each time. He went on to run third on Jacquinot at McNeil at Caulfield before going to Flemington where he was good of late when third at Berkeley Square. Hard fit now and down to the mile, it all points to him IMO.

Danger

1 Let’s roll the dice (Bet now: $10.00) is a great price for a quality horse. Pass the mark for sure fresh here for Fast Witness. He then went to Exford at Flemington and had little luck in the straight when he seemingly had a lot to offer so he was totally forgiven for Berkeley Square. He will get a mile, a cap to sharpen him up and if gate one is used to advantage he will be quite dangerous.

Long shot

11 Poison Chalice (Bet now: $101.00) looks like a horse that wants a 2000m horse. I don’t think he’ll beat them, but for a sneaky top four bet I’d include him. On his debut at Geelong, he was wide, no cover and a hard run said late when he was fourth, but full of credit. The stable was doing badly, but it’s been a long time since Yendall came back. Keep an eye on him.

Race 5. (20:15) Ladbrokes 55 Second Challenge 955m

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Back me

imo 8 Asfoora (Bet now: $2.50) is a Stakes class horse and is a very sharp sprinter, so 955m looks ideal here. She continued over the 1000m at Sandown where she produced an electric change of pace and she slapped them in such an impressive comeback. Just stick to it to win.

Danger

7 Rose Quartz (Bet now: $6.00) is a talented mare for the Graham Begg camp that continues. She had a very good autumn preparation, finishing a close second on the straight at Flemington to Bermadez. Her best performance was in the straight, but she cornered and mapped perfectly from the gate.

Long shot

3 Sartorial Splendor (Bet now: $26.00) jumps on the bunny and makes a face. He did that in the Regal Roller a few weeks ago at Caulfield and felt the pinch at the end of the 1200m when he was down the track behind Uncommon James. Back to 955m I like him and with hard condition and good racing style he could get top four places.

Race 6. (20:45) Jra Cup 2040m

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Back me

I was really surprised that $11 all in was offered 4 Big house (Bet now: $3.60) because I think he’s got a little bit of it if he’s ready to go, which I think he is. He continued at Flemington and was one of the eye-catchers of the meeting when he was a close third behind the impressive winemaker Makram. J Mac he signals intent and just needs luck from the gate to win this one IMO.

Danger

7 Macrame (Bet now: $3.60) is back on track. Jury was out after a very simple return but bounced back in style at Flemington when he was fit, on the road and too good for them. Potentially on the way to the Caulfield Cup and a win here would secure him a place on the shortlist. It inspires respect.

Long shot

3 Persian (Bet now: $12.00) has class if he’s ready to go, but I think this is a prep run. But there’s a winner on the track and he has the gloss on Maher/Eustace, so I’m not writing him off. He continued at Flemington and was fine late without threatening Makram. Fitter and up to 2040m can be a big improver.

Race 7. (21:15) Moir Stakes 1000m

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Back me

3 Rothfire (Bet now: $4.50) is a map horse. He got the ideal map in McEwen and was impressive late on as he wore down Zoustyle who had a track pattern on his turn. I believe the stable is perfecting this and Manikato so the plan is in place and the race will run. Hard to beat.

Danger

6 generations (Bet now: $9.00) is a few weeks between runs in the Maher/Eustace camp since resuming at this track/distance where he was on the pace and fought hard, kicking but was late in the blouses from Queensland raider Shooting For Gold. Fitter, and I think he’ll be more efficient with a bunny to chase.

Long shot

Yeh, I think 1 Hell (Bet now: $21.00) is a stupid price. I was close in the race last year and I thought the comeback in McEwen was beautiful, he was setting fast late splits after I knocked him down early. He needs a patient helmsman and B Shinn is the perfect booking. I see him sitting and starting so late.

Race 8. (21:45) Stocks Stakes 1600m

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Back me

It looks like a two-way race, but I’m leaning with the better odds 2 Foxy Frida (Bet now: $6.50). She continued in the Let’s Elope at Flemington and was very good late from behind when fourth to Kissonallforcheeks. A good second record and if she can settle closer in the run, be in range, I think she will be strong late.

Danger

1 Kissonallforcheeks (Bet now: $2.40) has a bit on them if it becomes a session/sprint. Zahra’s Peach saw Let’s Elope win, sitting wide with cover before breaking away and running powerfully to win handsomely. The ask with her is a strong mile but if she gets a cheap ride and doesn’t spend too many gas tickets she has the class to win and win well.

Long shot

4 Groovy Kinda Love (Bet now: $51.00) is one that I could entertain wider multiples. Here she is second after coming back in the 1400m at Caulfield when she returned to the sit/sprint and wasn’t suited but picked up and was well late behind Lady Of Honor who ran well in the Let’s Elope. I doubt he will win, but the top four is in danger.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 8 Asfoora

NEXT BEST: Race 3 Number 3 Clemenceau

LONG SHOT: Plant #1 Ojai

Tips for quads (races five to eight):

First leg: 8

Second part: 3, 4, 7, 8

Third section: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12

Fourth part: 1, 2

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