26/1/2023 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Sandown Blue Diamond Preview Day

Sandown Hillside is where Melbourne’s Australia Day races are headed. The weather is good, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the right position for the whole circuit.

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Race 1. (13:20) Nick Johnstone R/E (Bm70) 2400m

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Back me

I like to eat peanuts any way 3 Trading (Bet now: $15.00), who was quite good in a few runs for Michael Moroney. He covered this course/distance three weeks ago where he was almost last in the run and was never a threat but liked the way he found the line late in the stretch behind So Unusual. D Oliver holds the sticks, which I think is the lead for horses at $21 and up, and with more positive management I think he will run a cracking price race.

Danger

9 Wahine Toa (Bet now: $4.20). Spank Job won two back at The Valley before going here where Cartwright gave her a peach and she looked to win there but couldn’t get there when narrowly beaten by So Unusual for third. Maps to enjoy a sweet ride in transit and running on board prove to be hard to beat.

Long shot

11 Pacino (Bet now: $7.50) deserves another look. Lightly raced rider for Ben Brisbourne, who put together a couple of sharp wins on the bounce before going to Flemington two weeks back where he was confidently backed for a price, but unlucky in the straight when he seemingly had a lot to offer and should have finished much closer behind Princess Rhaenys. Better luck running, he’ll make it.

Race 2. (13:55) Catanach Jewel Mary Bell-Bm70 1400m

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Back me

6 Rioyuki (Bet now: $4.60), looks set to win third from the break. She followed that up with a quick second-placed finish over 1200m at Warrnambool before going to 1400m at Flemington two weeks ago and rocketing to the line late when narrowly missing out on victory from Belle Et Riche. He should hold a place forward from the gate, has a good rise ahead of him and will be strong. Hard to beat.

Danger

4 Defining (Bet now: $6.50) has a good edge, as you’d expect, and her best is certainly good enough to pull it off. Recovered with a very good effort on Ballarat Cup Day before a little break. She then went into midweek at Sandown and was a little off the pace when initially asked but stayed on and was good in defeat when a narrow fifth behind Field Of Praise. Fitter deserves another look.

Long shot

1 Ballynora (Bet now: $00 SP.00) was up for a while, but she’s keeping her form really well. Most of her recent races have been at The Valley, where she was two back before coming across a progressive mare in the Forbidden City who gave them a start and beat them, but to Ballynora’s credit she stuck to the task very well to finish second. If he can translate that to Sandown, he will be up against them.

Race 3. (14:30) Blue Diamond Preview (C&G) 1000m

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Back me

2 Instructor (Bet now: $2.40) just needs to run to a debut win and I think he’ll do it at 2/2. A lot of hubris about his debut win at Pakenham, he produced sustained speed from the front and looked nothing else, won comfortably and improved as the race progressed so for me he will be strong at the end of the 1000m here and is clearly the one to beat.

Danger

8 goods (Bet now: $8.50) is a very well named colt for Team Freedman making his debut. He is called Goodes out of a mare named Apologynotaccepted. He had a non-running spring practice and was lettered after the second jump. He came back with a few jumps this time, last saw him lead at Flemington and I thought he moved very well. Market watch.

Long shot

3 Corniche (Bet now: $10.00) must be respected here. He wasn’t given much hope with the ride when he made his debut at The Valley a few weeks ago, sitting wide, without cover in a field of five, but he didn’t mind being stuck in defeat behind Croat Bell. I’ve been training on the track and I think the form from that race will hold up pretty well, so he’s one of the main contenders for me.

Race 4. (15:05) Blue Diamond Preview (Fillies) 1000m

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Back me

I didn’t think there was anything wrong with a debut win 1 Research (Bet now: $10.00) at Flemington, so I’m surprised there are double figures for her. She led the whole time and was strong until the end. She was there to be beaten, but was found with a piece in her hand. She has a weight penalty for this win, but looks like a good mover, lands close to the speed and should be hard to get down.

Danger

2 Aditi (Bet now: $3.30) is an Exceed And Excel mare for GaiBott who continues. She has not raced since the spring when she made her debut in the Maribyrnong Trial and was still looking for the line with a good effort when second to Zulfiqar. A sharp win in the Sydney trial to set up, she should land in a plum spot from the gate and make J Kah steer to have a piece in the corner.

Long shot

4 Picky (Bet now: $23.00) is a Corstens-trained mare that appeals as a key chance to win. On her New Year’s debut at Flemington she was relatively safe in the stakes and worked hard on the line, but I think she came across quite a smart bet in the Exploring but beat the race comfortably. Gate makes things difficult, but if she pulls into the race, she’ll be strong late.

Race 5. (15:40) Evergreen Turf (Bm70) 1400m

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Back me

8 Only John (Bet now: $5.00) looks ready to win. He was excellent in two runs back from the spell. In the Den Pakenham Cup, he ran second fresh before going to 1300m and was good to the line late behind Netanyahu. I hope the inner gate is used to advantage, and if that happens then he is clearly the one to beat.

Danger

3 Fitter (Bet now: $6.50) and up to 1400m there are two big ticks for Sandy Prince. He went on down the straight at Flemington over 1100 a few weeks ago and I think he found them a bit sharp late, but he was far from an embarrassing defeat behind Jungle Jim. He seems to race best at 1400 and when he comes back to the bend he can run a much better race. With his best form, he is hard to beat.

Long shot

11 Danish happiness (Bet now: $13.00) flies without a win and is one for multiples. He ran less than two weeks back at Murray Bridge when not covered from the gate and entitled to hit straight up, but still found the line and was good in defeat behind Grand Host. I’m not sure he can beat them, especially with a tricky gate, but he can definitely finish in the top four.

Race 6. (16:20) WJ Adams Stakes 1000m

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Back me

It looks like there is really good speed, so you want to be sitting on something and be strong late. 4 Dragonstone (Bet now: $11.00) is real and double digit, worth the ticket. He ran in the Canterbury Sprint on New Year’s Eve at Canterbury and found the line well off the pace when third to the dynamic winner It’s Me, who is one of the most in-form mares in the country. They’ll get here quickly and it’s ready to go.

Danger

5 star patrol (Bet now: $2.15). He has not raced since August 27 at Caulfield, when he was a close third behind quality sprinter Shooting For Gold. A couple of Cranbourn’s jumps were quite good and despite the difficult gate he has to overcome, he has the brilliance to make a run on them.

Long shot

6 On a leash (Bet now: $5.50) will start late. He did it at this track/distance last time where he sat up in a race where they went crazy at the front, set it up on the backmarker he was and started late to win. He will see them again at the start, but if he is within 300m he has the final to work them.

Race 7. (17:00) Manfred Stakes 1300m

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Back me

If it seems too good to be true, it usually is. But seriously, there are problems and connections are in trouble if 1 Jacquinot (Bet now: $1.80) will not exceed this amount. He is the best horse in the mile race and first up at 1300m, although it is an easy ask on the eye, he is fine if you dig deep as he got a good hit to win the recent jump at 1000m and has his eyes on CF . Orr and/or the Future. He should win.

Danger

Jacquinot stands out. Outside of him, he is the best horse in the race for me 10 Climbing star (Bet now: $8.50) and I look forward to her biography. The Phillip Stokes-trained mare is the first after a promising spring to finish second to quality mare Roots on Oaks Day in the Inglis Bracelet. He is quite looking forward to good running here and the big key will be dry ground. She looks like a dead hitchhiker.

Long shot

6 Merry Mac Boy (Bet now: $9.50) will be defeated if he lands on speed, he gets it cheap and the song plays up/to the end. He continued on this track/distance where he tried to lead and gave a good kick but couldn’t get there when he was just behind Netanyahu. Better to run, he should find an ancestor and give a bold look.

Race 8. (17:40) John Dillon Stakes 1400m

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Back me

I think you have to risk it 7 Bridge in Normandy (Bet now: $9.00), as he could have panels on this property. A high-quality French import who continues in the Maher/Eustace camp after last year’s autumn training where he was on the flat at Carlyon behind Earlswood. I thought he rode in the recent jump at Cranbourne and if he brings his French form he would beat them. Almost double digits is more than tempting.

Danger

5 Passage of dawn (Bet now: $7.50) is a key threat. The GaiBott-trained gelding continued less than two weeks ago in the Standish at Flemington where it was essentially a barrier test, so he was fine with being close to the pace and unable to chase late when second behind the well-known horse on the straight, Snapper. Better for running, up to 1400m, truer pace, hard to beat.

Long shot

12 William Thomas (Bet now: $46.00) is one for wider multiples at a great price. He ran the straight less than two weeks ago where he was late, settled almost last in the run and was never a threat, but he didn’t mind finishing his race behind D’Jumbuck. I couldn’t back him to win, but he’s certainly doing well enough to make the top four for the prize.

BEST BET: Race seven number 1 Jacquinot

NEXT BEST: Race 3 Number 2 Instructor

LONG SHOT: Race number 3 Traduce

Tips for quads (races five to eight):

First leg: 3, 4, 8, 11

Second part: 1, 4, 5, 6

Third section: 1

Fourth part: 3, 5, 7, 8, 12

$50 investment = 62.50% dividend if successful

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