Tougher tests for New York’s Giants and Jets, not Buffalo’s Bills

Published on: October 7, 2022, 03:57 am.

Last update: 7 October 2022, 03:13.

This is the weekend we find out if the Giants and Jets got off to a lucky start or if they’re on a roll.


Jet helmets and giants on the grid. Both teams are again underdogs. (Image: thesource.com)

Four weeks is a good sample size. Five is better.

We have a month to make judgments on each of them (along with the Buffalo Bills, the other New York team). But the Jets and Giants are exceeding expectations, while the Bills are pretty much what we expected — with a huge help from Baltimore coach John Harbaugh.

With the Giants, I always knew Saquon Barkley had the talent and bad luck to be injury prone. But leading the NFL in all-purpose yards (570) along with total rushing yards (463) when the bookies over/underrated his rushing yards in the 70s?

Well, that shows a theme we’ll touch on continually in these columns. Books are sometimes very, very wrong.

As for the Jets, we knew quarterback Zack Wilson would give them a boost after Joe Flacco’s three-game season opener. But to bring his team back by two fourth-quarter touchdowns on the road in Pittsburgh against what had been a pretty good Steelers defense for three quarters?

That win and the miracle in Cleveland in Week 2 makes us think that maybe this team is more than lucky. We say this with the utmost trepidation because they are the Jets.

But now they face a Miami team that wouldn’t have injured Tua Tagovailoa just two weeks after he drew millions of dollars in MVP futures bets. And you start to wonder if their luck is insane.

Bookmakers are not convinced

Both the Giants and Jets are underdogs this week, of course. The Giants get 7 1/2 or 8 in London for their overseas tilt with the Green Bay Packers. This while the Jets get three at home against the Dolphins. They are trying for their first regular season wins in Weeks 14 and 15 of the 2020 season after starting 0-13. Yes, it’s been a while.

The Bills are 14-point favorites at home against the same Steelers who dropped one against the Jets. That two-touchdown spread is the largest on the NFL line this week. They won the first two by 21 and 34. And the question is whether we will see these The Bills or the other Bills who dropped a 21-19 game against the Dolphins and had to rally from a 20-3 deficit against a Ravens team whose coach had a bout with cranial flatulence that will go down in lore NFL.

Oddsmakers convinced on Saquon yet?

Let’s get back to Barkley, whose over/under line total has been exceeded a whole yard at 80 1/2 despite rushing for 146 last week, meaning he’s hit that in three of four games. His over/under receiving yardage is 28 1/2, even though the Giants’ receiving corps has been decimated by injuries.

And quarterback Daniel Jones on a sprained ankle will likely be inclined to look for shorter passing plays rather than drop further into the pocket, where his lack of mobility and likely inability to scramble will put him in a disadvantage.

No doubt the Packers are game planning for such an event, and we’ll see if Barkley can overproduce against a defense that likely knows exactly what’s going on with them.

That’s why the onus is on coach Brian Daboll to get the most out of his special teams and defense as he game plans against a future Hall of Famer in Aaron Rodgers, who — get this stat — has 52 TDs and just six interceptions when facing off. five or more rushers in 2018. In the first three games of the season, he threw a pass when hit 100 percent of the time. No sacks, no fumbles, no dropped or broken passes.

Last week, the Bucs hit him on 41.2 percent of his dropbacks and had six sacks, but completed 77.1 percent of his passes.

Rodgers’ receiving corps is also 2nd in the NFL in yards after a catch.

Why Giants-Packers Line So High

So a future Hall of Famer vs. a guy on an ankle is one of the reasons for the big line in this matchup of 3-1 teams. There will be a special breakfast in New York (9:30 am start), while in Wisconsin, pastors will wonder what happened to their flocks.

We’re sure of this much: Barkley will be on hand to carry the offense. If Jones is over 90% on his ankle, this could be an unlikely win against a Packers team that had a slightly shorter rest week (the Pack went to OT in an afternoon game last Sunday), a longer plane ride and a QB. who had his head cleaned by ayahuasca.

Wilson is coming off a week where some strong words precipitated the final two TD drives in the fourth quarter. He told his teammates on the sidelines that we’re not going to reprint here because we’re a family website and we don’t want to spoil that with words that rhyme with mud.

The game-winning score was inches away from being a game-clinching fumble, but running back Breece Hall broke through the goal line with 16 seconds left to complete a 10-play, 65-yard drive for a stunning second comeback against a Team AFC Central.

The Jets are now 2-2, trailing the Bills and Dolphins by a game in the standings in a tough October-November stretch. 6 schedule that will test their mettle: Green Bay and Denver on the road are next, followed by home games against the Patriots and Bills. The latter kicks off a November where their schedule will lighten up as they host the Bears, Lions, Jaguars and Seahawks as part of their final seven games.

The division games are crucial to the tiebreaker and the Dolphins will be their first division opponent and starting QB Teddy Bridgewater. This while Tua becomes a lightning rod for further tightening of concussion protocol rules. Hey, you take your breaks when you can get them, and this certainly seems to be one for Gang Green.

Old friends on the coaching staff

One of the games within the game will pit Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel against Jets offensive coordinator Mike Lafleur. The two have worked together for the Browns, Falcons and 49ers, always in different positions related to the offense. How this plays out will be interesting, as the two certainly know each other’s trick games. This could factor into your betting strategy for the over/under, which is 46, a number the Jets have only reached once in four games (the Dolphins are 1-3 in the over/under and have scored just 15 against Cincinnati last week after Tagovailoa left. dropped for the second time in as many weeks.)

Miami is 2-1-0 against the spread with a rest advantage from last season. They haven’t played in two days since Thursday, and the notorious wind at Met Life Stadium is forecast to be a relatively light 11 MPH. Miami kicker Jason Sanders is 5-6 this season and missed an extra point. Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein is 7-for-8 on both FGs and PATs. And hey, in a game with a 3 1/2 point line, kickers are kind of big, right?

As for the Bills, that 17-point comeback we saw last week was their biggest comeback win since they erased a 21-point deficit to beat New England in 2011. Their over/under is of 45 1/2 and 81 percent of BetMGM’s handle went under, spokesman John Ewing said.

Do you think that is a large percentage?

Well, in the Dolphins-Jets game, 85% of bets are on Miami, the second-highest total in the NFL behind 92% of the crowd, taking the Titans -2 1/2 in Washington. So if the Jets were to shock the world, it would shock a lot of bettors who thought the Fish were a lock.

In the Bills game, the over/under for Allen’s passing yards is 279 1/2 for a guy who averages 306.8 and remains the prohibitive favorite for MVP at +250, followed by Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts at + 500 each. Allen’s favorite receiver has been Stefon Diggs, whose receiving yardage over/under is 83 1/2, a number he has failed to surpass in the past two games.

For those bettors who like all three New York teams to win again (hey, it happened last week), a 10 ML bet on the Jets, Giants and Bills pays $111.91 at Draft Kings and $97.40 USD to Fan Duel. Fan Duel also moved the Giants line to 8 on Friday because they were seeing the same skewed percentages coming on the Packers as BetMGM.

For those expecting a dog in the afternoon (and morning), a three-way point spread on the Giants, Jets and Steelers pays $68.24 at Draft Kings and $62.18 at Fan Duel. Instead, we recommend spending the $10 on a Mimosa for the morning game and seeing where things go from there.

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